It’s time. Just as we did after the first quarter, we’ve rounded up and ranked the top 75 non-open seat House races according to the SSP Cash Power Index — a metric designed to measure cash-on-hand competitiveness. We divide a challenger’s cash-on-hand by the size of the incumbent’s war chest to gauge the financial gap between candidates.
Let’s have a look at where we stand after the second quarter. You’ll notice that eight of the top ten challengers are Democrats, and the top-ranked Republican is Deborah “The Defrauder” Honeycutt. 47 of the top 75 challengers are Democrats while 27 are Republicans. A lone independent makes the chart for the first time:
| Cash Power Rank | 1Q Rank | District | Challenger | Party | CoH | Incumbent | Party | CoH | Cash Power Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | (n/a) | LA-01 | Harlan | D | $554 | Scalise | R | $211 | 263% |
| 2 | 9 | GA-13 | Honeycutt | R | $290 | Scott | D | $119 | 244% |
| 3 | 2 | TX-07 | Skelly | D | $1050 | Culberson | R | $550 | 191% |
| 4 | 1 | ID-01 | Minnick | D | $444 | Sali | R | $250* | 178% |
| 5 | 4 | WA-08 | Burner | D | $1248 | Reichert | R | $916 | 136% |
| 6 | 28 | IL-14 | Oberweis | R | $547 | Foster | D | $443 | 123% |
| 7 | 8 | FL-24 | Kosmas | D | $936 | Feeney | R | $795 | 118% |
| 8 | 14 | IN-03 | Montagano | D | $352 | Souder | R | $323 | 109% |
| 9 | 6 | MI-07 | Schauer | D | $929 | Walberg | R | $855 | 109% |
| 10 | 3 | NY-29 | Massa | D | $652 | Kuhl | R | $619 | 105% |
| 11 | 16 | MO-06 | Barnes | D | $962 | Graves | R | $936 | 103% |
| 12 | 7 | OH-02 | Wulsin | D | $378 | Schmidt | R | $393 | 96% |
| 13 | 11 | VA-10 | Feder | D | $812 | Wolf | R | $849 | 96% |
| 14 | 31 | AK-AL | Berkowitz | D | $399 | Young | R | $461 | 87% |
| 15 | 12 | CT-04 | Himes | D | $1444 | Shays | R | $1698 | 85% |
| 16 | 26 | KY-03 | Northup | R | $819 | Yarmuth | D | $1002 | 82% |
| 17 | (n/a) | LA-06 | Cassidy | R | $195 | Cazayoux | D | $271 | 72% |
| 18 | 21 | FL-16 | Valeche | R | $829 | Mahoney | D | $1172 | 71% |
| 19 | 23 | WI-08 | Gard | R | $649 | Kagen | D | $927 | 70% |
| 20 | 38 | FL-25 | Garcia | D | $701 | M. Diaz-Balart | R | $1045 | 67% |
| 21 | 13 | NH-01 | Bradley | R | $475 | Shea-Porter | D | $749 | 63% |
| 22 | (n/a) | AK-AL | LeDoux | R | $289 | Young | R | $461 | 63% |
| 23 | 15 | VA-05 | Perriello | D | $520 | Goode | R | $834 | 62% |
| 24 | 39 | FL-21 | Martinez | D | $1079 | L. Diaz-Balart | R | $1755 | 61% |
| 25 | 44 | VA-02 | Nye | D | $409 | Drake | R | $682 | 60% |
| 26 | 30 | MI-09 | Peters | D | $1082 | Knollenberg | R | $1891 | 57% |
| 27 | (n/a) | NY-24 | Hanna | R | $409 | Arcuri | D | $727 | 56% |
| 28 | 19 | KS-02 | Jenkins | R | $489 | Boyda | D | $892 | 55% |
| 29 | 48 | KS-03 | Jordan | R | $616 | Moore | D | $1140 | 54% |
| 30 | 27 | NC-10 | Johnson | D | $219 | McHenry | R | $411 | 53% |
| 31 | 42 | TX-10 | Doherty | D | $260 | McCaul | R | $489 | 53% |
| 32 | 18 | AZ-03 | Lord | D | $707 | Shadegg | R | $1354 | 52% |
| 33 | 58 | PA-15 | Bennett | D | $354 | Dent | R | $687 | 52% |
| 34 | 25 | CA-50 | Leibham | D | $267 | Bilbray | R | $528 | 51% |
| 35 | 20 | FL-09 | Dicks | D | $323 | Bilirakis | R | $643 | 50% |
| 36 | 46 | CO-04 | Markey | D | $580 | Musgrave | R | $1156 | 50% |
| 37 | 33 | CA-11 | Andal | R | $663 | McNerney | D | $1376 | 48% |
| 38 | 29 | OH-01 | Driehaus | D | $631 | Chabot | R | $1312 | 48% |
| 39 | 45 | NY-20 | Treadwell | R | $1269 | Gillibrand | D | $2803 | 45% |
| 40 | (n/a) | AK-AL | Parnell | R | $208 | Young | R | $461 | 45% |
| 41 | 36 | FL-08 | Stuart | D | $415 | Keller | R | $935 | 44% |
| 42 | 68 | IL-13 | Harper | D | $300 | Biggert | R | $680 | 44% |
| 43 | (n/a) | NV-03 | Titus | D | $553 | Porter | R | $1277 | 43% |
| 44 | 50 | IL-10 | Seals | D | $1176 | Kirk | R | $2857 | 41% |
| 45 | 24 | NJ-05 | Shulman | D | $258 | Garrett | R | $649 | 40% |
| 46 | 57 | PA-04 | Hart | R | $625 | Altmire | D | $1574 | 40% |
| 47 | (n/a) | PA-12 | Russell | R | $250 | Murtha | D | $644 | 39% |
| 48 | 37 | FL-16 | Rooney | R | $451 | Mahoney | D | $1172 | 38% |
| 49 | 34 | AZ-05 | Schweikert | R | $521 | Mitchell | D | $1372 | 38% |
| 50 | 59 | CT-05 | Cappiello | R | $711 | Murphy | D | $1901 | 37% |
| 51 | (n/a) | FL-08 | Grayson | D | $345 | Keller | R | $935 | 37% |
| 52 | 41 | FL-13 | Jennings | D | $579 | Buchanan | R | $1573 | 37% |
| 53 | 64 | AL-03 | Segall | D | $411 | Rogers | R | $1120 | 37% |
| 54 | 73 | NV-02 | Derby | D | $353 | Heller | R | $984 | 36% |
| 55 | 49 | GA-08 | Goddard | R | $489 | Marshall | D | $1372 | 36% |
| 56 | 32 | NH-01 | Stephen | R | $257 | Shea-Porter | D | $749 | 34% |
| 57 | 63 | PA-06 | Roggio | D | $260 | Gerlach | R | $762 | 34% |
| 58 | 43 | TN-09 | Tinker | D | $247 | Cohen | D | $727 | 34% |
| 59 | (n/a) | MS-01 | Davis | R | $54 | Childers | D | $161 | 34% |
| 60 | (n/a) | OH-02 | Krikorian | I | $131 | Schmidt | R | $393 | 33% |
| 61 | 53 | AZ-08 | Bee | R | $688 | Giffords | D | $2078 | 33% |
| 62 | 54 | IN-09 | Sodrel | R | $379 | Hill | D | $1160 | 33% |
| 63 | (n/a) | CO-05 | Bidlack | D | $77 | Lamborn | R | $237 | 32% |
| 64 | (n/a) | SC-01 | Ketner | D | $432 | Brown | R | $1340 | 32% |
| 65 | (n/a) | MN-01 | Davis | R | $377 | Walz | D | $1211 | 31% |
| 66 | (n/a) | CA-03 | Durston | D | $189 | Lungren | R | $615 | 31% |
| 67 | 10 | TN-04 | Lankford | R | $140 | L. Davis | D | $461 | 30% |
| 68 | 56 | CA-45 | Bornstein | D | $122 | Bono Mack | R | $421 | 29% |
| 69 | 40 | FL-08 | Smith | D | $269 | Keller | R | $935 | 29% |
| 70 | 51 | WV-02 | Barth | D | $353 | Moore Capito | R | $1237 | 29% |
| 71 | 55 | IN-04 | Ackerson | D | $178 | Buyer | R | $629 | 28% |
| 72 | (n/a) | CA-46 | Cook | D | $97 | Rohrabacher | R | $388 | 25% |
| 73 | 22 | KS-02 | Ryun | R | $223 | Boyda | D | $892 | 25% |
| 74 | 69 | NJ-04 | Zeitz | D | $125 | Smith | R | $504 | 25% |
| 75 | 71 | FL-18 | Taddeo | D | $457 | Ros-Lehtinen | R | $1893 | 24% |
*Estimate.
Hi James, just wondering, who dropped off of the list?
Last report before 6/30 had him sitting on 157K, so 250K is a new number. Didn’t see any new reports on the FEC site.
in PA-12, who’s posted impressive fundraising numbers against Jack Murtha, is another client of BMW Direct. TPM broke the story after Michelle Malkin started gushing about this guy’s chances.
I was surprised to see TX-22 no where on the list given that Lampson is generally viewed as our most vulnerable incumbent. But, on further reflection, I’d guess it’s because the Rs had a hard fought primary and have spent their money. If so, this list might mislead as to the future monetary competitiveness of any districts where the challenger fought a tough primary battle.
45% (15 of 33) of Democrats who raised 64%+ compared to their Republican incumbent opponents won.
13% (6 of 46) of Democrats who raised between 25% and 63% vs. Republican incumbents won.
0% (0 of 119) of Democrats who raised less than 25% as much as the Republican incumbent won.
These benchmarks can be used as barometers for success in 2008.
It is interesting that the Cash Power Index cuts off at 24%. If a challenger does not appear on this list (or get on there by November), he or she has almost no chance of winning.